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A Persistent Forecast for 2021

Wall Street forecasts lack persistence. Their shelf life may only be a few weeks or months at best. 2020 was a great example; once COVID hit, existing forecasts became worthless. And this happens just about every year – excuses abound as to why the “experts” got it wrong…again. Forecasts are alluring because they provide an illusion of certainty. And our brain wants certainty. The problem is that we are looking for certainty in the wrong place. Our forecast is persistent because...

Investing Baron Team Insights